Sandbox:Creating and analysing synthetic sediment sections with R

Past environmental information is typically inferred from proxy data contained in accretionary sediments. The validity of proxy data and analysis workflows are usually assumed implicitly, with systematic tests and uncertainty estimates restricted to modern analogue studies or reduced-complexity case studies. However, a more generic and consistent approach to exploring the validity and variability of proxy functions would be to translate a sediment section into a model scenario: a “virtual twin”. Here, we introduce a conceptual framework and numerical tool set that allows the definition and analysis of synthetic sediment sections. The R package sandbox describes arbitrary stratigraphically consistent deposits by depth-dependent rules and grain-specific parameters, allowing full scalability and flexibility. Virtual samples can be taken, resulting in discrete grain mixtures with defined parameters. These samples can be virtually prepared and analysed, for example, to test hypotheses. We illustrate the concept of sandbox, explain how a sediment section can be mapped into the model and explore geochronological research questions related to the effects of sample geometry and grain-size-specific age inheritance. We summarise further application scenarios of the model framework, relevant for but not restricted to the broader geochronological community.CREDit - Chronological REference Datasets and Sites (CREDit) towards improved accuracy and precision in luminescence-based chronologie

Scaling Contagious Disturbance: A Spatially-Implicit Dynamic Model

Spatial processes often drive ecosystem processes, biogeochemical cycles, and land-atmosphere feedbacks at the landscape-scale. Climate-sensitive disturbances, such as fire, land-use change, pests, and pathogens, often spread contagiously across the landscape. While the climate-change implications of these factors are often discussed, none of these processes are incorporated into earth system models as contagious disturbances because they occur at a spatial scale well below model resolution. Here we present a novel second-order spatially-implicit scheme for representing the size distribution of spatially contagious disturbances. We demonstrate a means for dynamically evolving spatial adjacency through time in response to disturbance. Our scheme shows that contagious disturbance types can be characterized as a function of their size and edge-to-interior ratio. This emergent disturbance characterization allows for description of disturbance across scales. This scheme lays the ground for a more realistic global-scale exploration of how spatially-complex disturbances interact with climate-change drivers, and forwards theoretical understanding of spatial and temporal evolution of disturbance

Sub-daily Statistical Downscaling of Meteorological Variables Using Neural Networks

AbstractA new open source neural network temporal downscaling model is described and tested using CRU-NCEP reanal ysis and CCSM3 climate model output. We downscaled multiple meteorological variables in tandem from monthly to sub-daily time steps while also retaining consistent correlations between variables. We found that our feed forward, error backpropagation approach produced synthetic 6 hourly meteorology with biases no greater than 0.6% across all variables and variance that was accurate within 1% for all variables except atmospheric pressure, wind speed, and precipitation. Correlations between downscaled output and the expected (original) monthly means exceeded 0.99 for all variables, which indicates that this approach would work well for generating atmospheric forcing data consistent with mass and energy conserved GCM output. Our neural network approach performed well for variables that had correlations to other variables of about 0.3 and better and its skill was increased by downscaling multiple correlated variables together. Poor replication of precipitation intensity however required further post-processing in order to obtain the expected probability distribution. The concurrence of precipitation events with expected changes in sub ordinate variables (e.g., less incident shortwave radiation during precipitation events) were nearly as consistent in the downscaled data as in the training data with probabilities that differed by no more than 6%. Our downscaling approach requires training data at the target time step and relies on a weak assumption that climate variability in the extrapolated data is similar to variability in the training data

An Ecosystem-Scale Model for the Spread of a Host-Specific Forest Pathogen in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem

The introduction of nonnative pathogens is altering the scale, magnitude, and persistence of forest disturbance regimes in the western United States. In the high-altitude whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) forests of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE), white pine blister rust (Cronartium ribicola) is an introduced fungal pathogen that is now the principal cause of tree mortality in many locations. Although blister rust eradication has failed in the past, there is nonetheless substantial interest in monitoring the disease and its rate of progression in order to predict the future impact of forest disturbances within this critical ecosystem. This study integrates data from five different field-monitoring campaigns from 1968 to 2008 to create a blister rust infection model for sites located throughout the GYE. Our model parameterizes the past rates of blister rust spread in order to project its future impact on high-altitude whitebark pine forests. Because the process of blister rust infection and mortality of individuals occurs over the time frame of many years, the model in this paper operates on a yearly time step and defines a series of whitebark pine infection classes: susceptible, slightly infected, moderately infected, and dead. In our analysis, we evaluate four different infection models that compare local vs. global density dependence on the dynamics of blister rust infection. We compare models in which blister rust infection is: (1) independent of the density of infected trees, (2) locally density-dependent, (3) locally density-dependent with a static global infection rate among all sites, and (4) both locally and globally density-dependent. Model evaluation through the predictive loss criterion for Bayesian analysis supports the model that is both locally and globally density-dependent. Using this best-fit model, we predicted the average residence times for the four stages of blister rust infection in our model, and we found that, on average, whitebark pine trees within the GYE remain susceptible for 6.7 years, take 10.9 years to transition from slightly infected to moderately infected, and take 9.4 years to transition from moderately infected to dead. Using our best-fit model, we project the future levels of blister rust infestation in the GYE at critical sites over the next 20 years

Human-induced fire regime shifts during 19th century industrialization: A robust fire regime reconstruction using northern Polish lake sediments

Fire regime shifts are driven by climate and natural vegetation changes, but can be strongly affected by human land management. Yet, it is poorly known how humans have influenced fire regimes prior to active wildfire suppression. Among the last 250 years, the human contribution to the global increase in fire occurrence during the mid-19th century is especially unclear, as data sources are limited. Here, we test the extent to which forest management has driven fire regime shifts in a temperate forest landscape. We combine multiple fire proxies (macroscopic charcoal and fire-related biomarkers) derived from highly resolved lake sediments (i.e., 3–5 years per sample), and apply a new statistical approach to classify source area- and temperature-specific fire regimes (biomass burnt, fire episodes). We compare these records with independent climate and vegetation reconstructions. We find two prominent fire regime shifts during the 19th and 20th centuries, driven by an adaptive socio-ecological cycle in human forest management. Although individual fire episodes were triggered mainly by arson (as described in historical documents) during dry summers, the biomass burnt increased unintentionally during the mid-19th century due to the plantation of flammable, fast-growing pine tree monocultures needed for industrialization. State forest management reacted with active fire management and suppression during the 20th century. However, pine cover has been increasing since the 1990s and climate projections predict increasingly dry conditions, suggesting a renewed need for adaptations to reduce the increasing fire risk. © 2019 Dietze et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited

Cutting out the middleman: calibrating and validating a dynamic vegetation model (ED2-PROSPECT5) using remotely sensed surface reflectance

Ecosystem models are often calibrated and/or validated against derived remote sensing data products, such as MODIS leaf area index. However, these data products are generally based on their own models, whose assumptions may not be compatible with those of the ecosystem model in question, and whose uncertainties are usually not well quantified. Here, we develop an alternative approach whereby we modify an ecosystem model to predict full-range, high spectral resolution surface reflectance, which can then be compared directly against airborne and satellite data. Specifically, we coupled the two-stream representation of canopy radiative transfer in the Ecosystem Demography model (ED2) with a leaf radiative transfer model (PROSPECT 5) and a simple soil reflectance model. We then calibrated this model against reflectance observations from the NASA Airborne VIsible/InfraRed Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) and survey data from 54 temperate forest plots in the northeastern United States. The calibration successfully constrained the posterior distributions of model parameters related to leaf biochemistry and morphology and canopy structure for five plant functional types. The calibrated model was able to accurately reproduce surface reflectance and leaf area index for sites with highly varied forest composition and structure, using a single common set of parameters across all sites. We conclude that having dynamic vegetation models directly predict surface reflectance is a promising avenue for model calibration and validation using remote sensing data.https://gmd.copernicus.org/preprints/gmd-2020-324/gmd-2020-324.pdfFirst author draf

Probing the limits of predictability: data assimilation of chaotic dynamics in complex food webs.

The daunting complexity of ecosystems has led ecologists to use mathematical modelling to gain understanding of ecological relationships, processes and dynamics. In pursuit of mathematical tractability, these models use simplified descriptions of key patterns, processes and relationships observed in nature. In contrast, ecological data are often complex, scale-dependent, space-time correlated, and governed by nonlinear relations between organisms and their environment. This disparity in complexity between ecosystem models and data has created a large gap in ecology between model and data-driven approaches. Here, we explore data assimilation (DA) with the Ensemble Kalman filter to fuse a two-predator-two-prey model with abundance data from a 2600+ day experiment of a plankton community. We analyse how frequently we must assimilate measured abundances to predict accurately population dynamics, and benchmark our population model's forecast horizon against a simple null model. Results demonstrate that DA enhances the predictability and forecast horizon of complex community dynamics

Addressing data integration challenges to link ecological processes across scales

Data integration is a statistical modeling approach that incorporates multiple data sources within a unified analytical framework. Macrosystems ecology – the study of ecological phenomena at broad scales, including interactions across scales – increasingly employs data integration techniques to expand the spatiotemporal scope of research and inferences, increase the precision of parameter estimates, and account for multiple sources of uncertainty in estimates of multiscale processes. We highlight four common analytical challenges to data integration in macrosystems ecology research: data scale mismatches, unbalanced data, sampling biases, and model development and assessment. We explain each problem, discuss current approaches to address the issue, and describe potential areas of research to overcome these hurdles. Use of data integration techniques has increased rapidly in recent years, and given the inferential value of such approaches, we expect continued development and wider application across ecological disciplines, especially in macrosystems ecology

Global Imprint of Mycorrhizal Fungi on Whole-Plant Nutrient Economics

Mycorrhizal fungi are critical members of the plant microbiome, forming a symbiosis with the roots of most plants on Earth. Most plant species partner with either arbuscular or ectomycorrhizal fungi, and these symbioses are thought to represent plant adaptations to fast and slow soil nutrient cycling rates. This generates a second hypothesis, that arbuscular and ectomycorrhizal plant species traits complement and reinforce these fungal strategies, resulting in nutrient acquisitive vs. conservative plant trait profiles. Here we analyzed 17,764 species level trait observations from 2,940 woody plant species to show that mycorrhizal plants differ systematically in nitrogen and phosphorus economic traits. Differences were clearest in temperate latitudes, where ectomycorrhizal plant species are more nitrogen use- and phosphorus use-conservative than arbuscular mycorrhizal species. This difference is reflected in both aboveground and belowground plant traits and is robust to controlling for evolutionary history, nitrogen fixation ability, deciduousness, latitude, and species climate niche. Furthermore, mycorrhizal effects are large and frequently similar to or greater in magnitude than the influence of plant nitrogen fixation ability or deciduous vs. evergreen leaf habit. Ectomycorrhizal plants are also more nitrogen conservative than arbuscular plants in boreal and tropical ecosystems, although differences in phosphorus use are less apparent outside temperate latitudes. Our findings bolster current theories of ecosystems rooted in mycorrhizal ecology and support the hypothesis that plant mycorrhizal association is linked to the evolution of plant nutrient economic strategies

Vegetation demographics in Earth System Models: A review of progress and priorities

Numerous current efforts seek to improve the representation of ecosystem ecology and vegetation demographic processes within Earth System Models (ESMs). These developments are widely viewed as an important step in developing greater realism in predictions of future ecosystem states and fluxes. Increased realism, however, leads to increased model complexity, with new features raising a suite of ecological questions that require empirical constraints. Here, we review the developments that permit the representation of plant demographics in ESMs, and identify issues raised by these developments that highlight important gaps in ecological understanding. These issues inevitably translate into uncertainty in model projections but also allow models to be applied to new processes and questions concerning the dynamics of real-world ecosystems. We argue that stronger and more innovative connections to data, across the range of scales considered, are required to address these gaps in understanding. The development of first-generation land surface models as a unifying framework for ecophysiological understanding stimulated much research into plant physiological traits and gas exchange. Constraining predictions at ecologically relevant spatial and temporal scales will require a similar investment of effort and intensified inter-disciplinary communication